In a strategic shift reshaping its business model, Donald Trump’s social-networking platform Truth Social — operated under his company Trump Media & Technology Group (TMTG) — is poised to allow users to wager on real-world events, including elections, interest-rate decisions, inflation changes, commodity prices and major sports outcomes.
The move will be enabled in partnership with Crypto.com, and represents TMTG’s foray into the growing “prediction market” sector rather than conventional gambling. Through the platform users will buy contracts that pay off if a specified event occurs — for instance, the election of a candidate, the winning of a team, or the movement of a commodity or interest rate. TMTG describes the product as targeting “elections, interest rates and inflation-rate changes, commodity prices on gold and crude oil” along with events across “all major sports leagues”.
Federal regulators treat these sorts of contracts as commodity-based instruments rather than traditional casino-style gambling. Specifically, the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) regulates such prediction markets rather than state-level gambling regulators.
TMTG’s decision to launch this initiative comes amid broader investor interest in the sector: earlier this month the operator of the New York Stock Exchange, Intercontinental Exchange, revealed a US $2 billion investment in one of the most prominent platforms in this space.
However, TMTG’s underlying financial health paints a challenging picture. Documents filed with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) show the company generated only US $1.7 million in revenue in the first half of 2025, while posting a net loss of US $51.7 million.
Industry observers flag that while prediction markets have surged in popularity — especially among young adults — the model raises risks of financial losses and addictive behaviour.
By integrating wagering features into a social-media platform, Truth Social is branching into uncharted territory. The consolidation of social interaction, topical event speculation and financial exposure aligns with broader digital-monetisation trends, but also invites regulatory scrutiny and reputational risk.
For users of the platform, this means the potential to transform regular engagement with news, politics and sports into speculative contracts — buying into outcomes rather than simply reading about them. For TMTG, the shift signals a pivot away from traditional ad-based revenue toward more exotic financial products in a bid to monetise its user base.
While the new functionality is likely to generate attention — and possibly attract new users interested in event speculation — the real test will lie in its rollout, regulatory compliance across jurisdictions and the company’s ability to scale the offering without amplifying financial risk or alienating its core social-media audience.
