Enacting the climate policies proposed in the rightwing Project 2025 would lead to billions of additional tonnes of carbon pollution, significantly undermining U.S. climate goals and disrupting clean energy investments and jobs, according to a recent analysis.
If Donald Trump returns to the White House and implements the Project 2025 policies, the U.S. would see an increase of 2.7 billion tonnes in greenhouse gas emissions by 2030. This amount is roughly equivalent to the total annual emissions of India, and would severely impede the U.S. goal of halving emissions by 2030, a critical target to help prevent severe climate change. The analysis also predicts that such policies would lead to a loss of 1.7 million jobs by 2030 due to decreased clean energy deployment, as well as a $320 billion reduction in U.S. GDP from reversing investments in renewables and electric vehicle manufacturing.
Anand Gopal, executive director of policy research at Energy Innovation, a non-partisan think tank, pointed out that the U.S. faces a crucial decision starting in January 2025, with two vastly different policy paths for climate and energy. “These future policy pathways result in stark differences for our health, our pocketbooks, the economy, and the climate,” he said.
The analysis underscores the stakes of the upcoming presidential election. Vice President Kamala Harris, representing the Biden administration, has supported climate-friendly policies and legislation, including the Inflation Reduction Act, which has driven significant investments in solar, wind, electric vehicles, and batteries. This has created over 300,000 new jobs in clean energy and doubled the pace of U.S. emissions reductions. The U.S. is now on track to cut emissions by 37% by 2030 compared to 2005 levels, bringing it close to its climate target.
In contrast, adopting Project 2025’s recommendations would drastically increase emissions—2.7 billion tonnes by 2030 and 26 billion tonnes by 2050. This plan calls for dismantling environmental protections, ramping up oil and gas drilling, repealing the Inflation Reduction Act, and even eliminating key federal agencies like the NOAA and the National Weather Service. The Heritage Foundation, which leads Project 2025, advocates for removing climate change references from all policy areas.
The projected impact includes thousands of additional premature deaths by 2030 due to increased air pollution and higher household costs compared to a more ambitious climate policy path. The Project 2025 team did not respond to requests for comment.
Gina McCarthy, former top climate adviser to Biden, criticized Project 2025 as a harmful and extreme proposal. “It really has to be rejected, and I think it summarily will be,” she said, noting that even Trump has distanced himself from the plan.
Trump has committed to expanding oil and gas drilling and eliminating Biden-era policies that support electric vehicle adoption. A previous analysis suggested that Trump’s policies could result in an additional 4 billion tonnes of greenhouse gases by 2030.
While some Republicans have criticized the Inflation Reduction Act, claiming it benefits China, others have supported the legislation as it has directed significant investments to GOP-held areas. Recently, 18 Republican members of Congress urged Speaker Mike Johnson not to cut this spending.
Harris, supported by environmental groups, has accused Trump of abandoning the fight against climate change. In a recent speech, she highlighted the real impacts of climate change in places like Arizona, contrasting this with Trump’s denial of the crisis.
Even if Harris wins and continues Biden’s climate policies, further action will be needed to achieve net zero emissions. Energy Innovation notes that additional measures, such as reducing pollution from buildings, restoring degraded land, and implementing new regulations on industry and energy use, will be necessary to meet climate targets.
