Reform UK is heading into its annual conference facing questions over whether it can recover from a troubled summer marked by political miscalculations, internal disagreements, falling poll numbers and renewed scrutiny of party leader Nigel Farage.
The right-wing populist party had hoped to use Parliament’s long summer recess to dominate the political agenda with controversial statements, new policies and attacks on its rivals. In previous years, Reform had successfully used the parliamentary break to maintain a high media profile, particularly amid protests over asylum seekers being housed in hotels. This year, however, the party has struggled to reproduce that momentum.
Reform has continued to hold regular press conferences and unveil policies, with figures such as Robert Jenrick promoting proposals to reduce welfare spending and cut what the party describes as unnecessary regulations affecting businesses. However, there has been little of the widespread unrest that helped put immigration and asylum policy at the centre of political debate last summer. Apart from disturbances in Thetford, Norfolk, the party has not benefited from a similar wave of public disorder.
Instead, some of Reform’s difficulties have come from within the party itself. Home affairs spokesperson Zia Yusuf attracted controversy with outspoken comments, including an attack on former Conservative defence secretary Ben Wallace. Farage was eventually forced to reprimand Yusuf after he described Wallace as a “traitor”. Another internal dispute followed the suspension of prominent activist Tim Montgomerie, who had previously defected from the Conservative Party.
The biggest strategic setback, however, may have been Farage’s decision to trigger a by-election in his Clacton constituency. The move was intended to ease pressure surrounding questions about an undeclared £5 million payment linked to Reform megadonor Christopher Harborne. Farage had reduced his public appearances after the payment came under scrutiny, but the by-election ultimately kept him tied to Clacton for about six weeks.
Although Farage won comfortably, the contest failed to develop into the wider confrontation with the political establishment that Reform had hoped for. Other major parties largely avoided turning the contest into a national political battle. Meanwhile, the parliamentary standards investigation into the payment has resumed after being paused during the by-election campaign.
Political observers have argued that the Clacton decision demonstrated a weakness in Reform’s broader strategy. Giles Dilnot of ConservativeHome said the party could be effective at short-term political tactics but had made a strategic error by allowing Farage to become tied to one constituency for such a long period.
Farage’s highly centralised leadership style is also attracting scrutiny. Critics argue that while he remains Reform’s biggest political asset and its most recognisable figure, his dominance can also become a weakness. His polarising image may make it harder for the party to expand beyond its existing core of supporters and appeal to a wider section of the electorate.
Recent opinion polls have added to concerns inside Reform. A More in Common survey placed the party at 23%, four points behind Labour and representing Reform’s weakest result in 18 months. Ipsos polling has also put Labour ahead of Reform, at 28% compared with 25%. Separate findings suggested that a large majority of voters do not consider Farage ready to serve as prime minister.
Reform is also facing competition from the right. Rupert Lowe’s Restore Britain party has begun attempting to attract voters who might otherwise support Farage. The challenge was highlighted in a recent Dover district council by-election, where Reform had previously performed strongly but finished behind the Greens, while Restore Britain secured around 10% of the vote.
Reform representatives, however, insist that reports of the party’s decline are exaggerated. They point to a growing list of policies and actions by Reform-controlled councils, including proposals in Kent concerning immigration. The party is also preparing to use its upcoming conference at the Birmingham NEC to present a more detailed programme for government.
The conference is expected to focus on what Reform says would be the first 100 days of a government led by the party. It will also feature policy discussions and greater engagement with the business community. For Reform, the event could provide an opportunity to move beyond the controversies of the summer and demonstrate that it has the organisation, policies and internal discipline required to turn its electoral ambitions into a credible governing project.
Yet the immediate challenge remains significant. The party must deal with questions surrounding its finances, manage disagreements among senior figures, prevent support from leaking to competing parties and convince voters that it can offer more than protest politics. As Parliament returns and the political spotlight shifts back to Westminster, Reform’s performance at Birmingham will be closely watched as an indication of whether its summer setbacks were temporary problems or signs of a deeper strategic difficulty.
