A new analysis has sounded the alarm: funding cuts to the U.S. Agency for International Development (USAID), part of sweeping policy changes by the Trump administration, could lead to more than 14 million additional deaths globally by 2030. Among these, approximately 4.5 million would be children under five. The findings highlight a potential reversal of health gains achieved over the past two decades, with life-and-death consequences in low- and middle-income nations.
Between 2001 and 2021, USAID’s global health programs are credited with preventing roughly 91–92 million deaths—highlighted by dramatic improvements in HIV/AIDS, malaria, and childhood health outcomes. Specifically, models suggest USAID aid contributed to a 65% reduction in HIV/AIDS deaths and around a 50% decrease in malaria fatalities . The agency’s longstanding presence has played a cornerstone role in reducing mortality across 133 countries, especially in sub-Saharan Africa .
Since President Donald Trump returned to office in January 2025, U.S. foreign aid has undergone dramatic restructuring. A presidential decree initiated sweeping changes: over 80% of USAID programs—nearly 5,200 contracts—were stripped away and oversight transferred to the U.S. State Department under Secretary Marco Rubio. The agency’s workforce also declined rapidly, with some estimates suggesting nearly all of its 10,000 staff were dismissed.
Critics, including former presidents Obama and Bush, as well as global figures like Bono and UN Secretary-General António Guterres, have condemned the cuts as a “conscious and avoidable policy choice,” warning of disastrous ripple effects in health, sanitation, nutrition, and disease surveillance across vulnerable regions.
The study cautions that each year from 2025 to 2030, these funding cuts could claim an additional 1.78–2.5 million lives globally. Researchers from the Barcelona Institute for Global Health (ISGlobal) affirm the stark reality: abrupt withdrawal of resources will deepen poverty, halt disease control, and dismantle health infrastructures that populations rely on.
Boston University’s Brooke Nichols has developed real-time trackers that reveal rapid increases in mortality as foreign aid programs stop. Preliminary data indicate tens of thousands of deaths already linked to disruptions in HIV and tuberculosis efforts. For instance, estimates project 176,000 additional HIV-related deaths and 62,000 extra tuberculosis fatalities if funding remains frozen by the end of 2025.
Beyond disease prevention, USAID supports food security, clean water, education, and crisis management. In Sudan and the Democratic Republic of Congo, cuts have disrupted food programs, famine relief, and epidemic monitoring—slowing response to Ebola-like diseases and potentially worsening public health emergencies . Analogous reductions from UK, France, and Germany only compound these challenges, weakening collective efforts in global health security .
As global leaders prepare for the UN’s Financing for Development Conference in Sevilla, donors are urged to reverse course. The Lancet study argues that continuing these drastic cuts risks decades of development progress, feeding regional instability, and allowing geopolitical rivals like China and Russia to fill the void.
The USAID funding rollback marks an unprecedented shift in U.S. leadership on global health. With millions of vulnerable lives now at stake, experts warn that restoring and stabilizing foreign aid is essential. Otherwise, a generation’s worth of hard-won health achievements could vanish—leaving behind a staggering human toll that extends far beyond national borders.
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