What assassination attempt on Trump means for US?

The image of Donald Trump raising his fist, looking determined, and urging the crowd to “fight, fight, fight” with blood dripping from his ear in his assassination attempt is set to define the 2024 American presidential elections. This moment positions Trump as both a hero and a victim, energizing his base. It counters the Democratic narrative portraying Trump as a source of political violence, potentially earning him sympathy and respect among swing voters. This could lead to a significant boost in polls just as the Republican National Convention is about to nominate him as the party’s presidential candidate. It also allows Trump’s campaign to frame him as a courageous fighter for the nation, contrasting him with the Democrats, who seem stuck with an ailing candidate and low morale.

With four months to the election, predicting outcomes is risky, and much can change. However, after Saturday’s shooting, Trump, already leading in polls, now has clear political momentum to potentially return to the White House for a rare non-consecutive second term.

The assassination attempt impacts American politics in several ways. For Trump’s base, the Make America Great Again (MAGA) movement, Trump has always been seen as the champion fighting against the powerful American establishment, including leaders from both parties, the “deep state,” and liberal elites in media and culture. They believe Trump is fighting to protect American borders, jobs, and interests against a globalist consensus, and that the establishment has relentlessly tried to block him. The allegations Trump has faced, from Russian involvement in the 2016 election to his recent business fraud conviction, are viewed as vendetta politics. These criminal charges have only solidified Trump’s political standing and helped raise more campaign funds.

For Trump’s supporters, the assassination attempt validates their belief in Trump as a selfless nationalist who has sacrificed luxury to fight for Americans. They see him as brave, taking on Washington and willing to risk his life for the cause. The shooting portrays Trump’s opponents as willing to do anything to prevent the MAGA movement’s return to the White House. Trump’s resilience after being shot, continuing to rally his supporters, is the biggest morale booster for Republicans in this election cycle.

Secondly, the shooting reverses current political narratives, allowing Republicans to shift focus from the January 6 Capitol attack and claim the moral high ground. Democrats have argued that the rise in political violence is due to the MAGA movement and Trump’s encouragement or ambivalence towards violence. Trump’s refusal to accept the 2020 election results and the resulting Capitol attack allowed Democrats to label him as a threat to democracy. However, the recent attack on Trump allows Republicans to depict him as a victim of political violence. They will likely blame Democrats for creating a climate that led to the shooting, despite Democratic condemnation of the attack. This narrative might persuade some swing voters and moderate Republicans to sympathize with Trump in a closely contested election.

Lastly, the timing of the attack benefits Trump. President Joe Biden, after a poor debate performance, faces backlash within his party, with many wanting him to drop out of the race. As Democrats deal with internal discord, a fragmented base, and low morale, their credibility suffers among donors and voters. In contrast, Trump will enter the Republican convention as a hero, having taken a bullet for the nation. This will unify Republicans, dominate media coverage, and potentially give Trump a significant poll bounce that his rivals may struggle to counter.

With his base energized, past controversies overshadowed, appeal to fence-sitters enhanced, and his image larger than life, Trump is poised to turn this moment of shock into a historic opportunity for a major political comeback.

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