Just a week before the US presidential election, Republican candidate Donald Trump pledged to reinforce the “great partnership” between the US and India. Calling Prime Minister Narendra Modi a “good friend,” Trump promised in a Diwali post on X to enhance relations between the two countries if elected.
Trump also condemned recent violence against Hindus and other minorities in Bangladesh, where, reports say, hundreds of Hindus have been attacked in the Muslim-majority nation.
Trump’s comments come at a time of heightened geopolitical complexity in South Asia, with former Bangladeshi Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina taking refuge in India following her ouster.
This message to the Indian diaspora in the US highlights Trump’s close relationship with Modi, showcased in events like the 2019 “Howdy, Modi!” rally in Texas, where Trump hosted Modi before a crowd of 50,000, one of the largest US gatherings for a foreign leader. In 2020, Modi reciprocated by welcoming Trump at the Narendra Modi Cricket Stadium in Gujarat, where 120,000 people gathered.
Their bond reflects a shared nationalist outlook. Modi’s “India First” and Trump’s “America First” platforms both focus on domestic development, economic nationalism, and secure borders.
Trump’s foreign policy approach, which emphasizes strategic partnerships, could directly impact India’s economy and defense landscape.
Economic and Trade Policies:
A Trump-led administration would likely favor US-focused trade policies, possibly pressuring India to reduce trade barriers or face tariffs, impacting sectors like IT, pharmaceuticals, and textiles, which rely heavily on US exports. In September, while calling India a “big abuser” on tariffs, Trump nonetheless praised Modi as “a fantastic man.”
During a town hall in Michigan, Trump said, “India… [is] at the top of their game… But India is very tough. Brazil is very tough… China is the toughest, but we were addressing China with tariffs.”
However, Trump’s emphasis on reducing reliance on China by relocating supply chains could benefit India, potentially attracting US companies looking for diversification.
Defense and Security:
Trump’s stance on China aligns with India’s concerns, likely fostering deeper defense cooperation. His previous administration strengthened the Quad, a security alliance between the US, India, Japan, and Australia, aimed at countering China’s influence in the Indo-Pacific. More joint military exercises, arms sales, and technology transfers could enhance India’s defense capabilities amid regional tensions.
Immigration and H-1B Visa Policies:
Trump’s restrictive stance on immigration, especially regarding the H-1B visa program, had significant effects on Indian professionals. A return to these policies could limit access to American job markets, impacting technology sectors reliant on Indian talent. Stricter immigration laws might also lead Indian tech firms to seek other markets or boost domestic investments.
Geopolitical Influence:
Trump’s policies in South Asia could affect India’s regional strategy. While he has shown openness to working with Pakistan, he has also demanded accountability in counter-terrorism, potentially balancing his approach. His “Peace through strength” doctrine could see the US taking a tougher line on terrorism and extremism, aligning with India’s security interests.
