Last year, the UN estimated that India surpassed China to become the most populous country, with nearly 1.45 billion people. Surprisingly, discussions around having more children are increasing, especially in southern states like Andhra Pradesh and Tamil Nadu.
Andhra Pradesh is considering incentives to address low fertility rates and an ageing population. It has already scrapped its “two-child policy” for local elections, and reports suggest Telangana might follow suit. Tamil Nadu has also joined the conversation, raising concerns even more strongly.
India’s fertility rate has dropped dramatically—from 5.7 births per woman in 1950 to just two today. Seventeen of India’s 29 states and territories now fall below the replacement rate of two births per woman, with southern states leading this demographic transition. Kerala achieved replacement-level fertility by 1988, Tamil Nadu by 1993, and others followed by the mid-2000s. Today, these states have fertility rates as low as or lower than European nations—Tamil Nadu at 1.4 and Karnataka at 1.6.
However, southern states worry about their demographic achievements despite India’s 1.45 billion population. With India’s first electoral seat delimitation exercise since 1976 scheduled for 2026, shifting population shares could reduce parliamentary seats and federal revenue allocations for states like Tamil Nadu, Kerala, and Andhra Pradesh. Demographers, including KS James and Shubhra Kriti, predict populous northern states like Uttar Pradesh and Bihar may gain more seats at the expense of the southern states.
These states fear they will be penalized for successfully controlling population growth despite their economic contributions. Srinivas Goli, a demography professor, suggests that while the federal-state concerns can be resolved through dialogue, a larger issue looms: India’s rapidly ageing population.
India’s ageing is happening much faster compared to developed nations even when India’s 1.45 billion population. For instance, while France and Sweden took 120 and 80 years, respectively, to double their elderly population from 7% to 14%, India is expected to do so in just 28 years. This rapid shift is driven by aggressive family welfare programs, which lowered fertility rates despite slow socio-economic progress.
States like Andhra Pradesh illustrate the problem. With a fertility rate of 1.5—on par with Sweden—but far lower per capita income, they face the challenge of supporting ageing populations with limited resources. According to the UN Population Fund’s latest report, over 40% of Indians aged 60 and above belong to the poorest wealth quintile. Goli calls this situation “getting old before getting rich” despite India’s 1.45 billion population.
Declining fertility rates also raise the old-age dependency ratio, straining caregivers and healthcare systems. Urbanization and migration are weakening traditional family support, exacerbating the issue. Goli emphasizes the urgent need for investments in social infrastructure, palliative care, and healthcare systems.
Meanwhile, Mohan Bhagwat, head of the Hindu nationalist Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh, recently urged couples to have at least three children, citing fears of societal decline if population growth drops below the replacement rate. However, demographers like Tim Dyson argue that while fertility rates around 1.8 ensure gradual decline, rates below 1.6 could cause rapid and unmanageable population drops, as seen in countries like South Korea and Greece.
Despite calls for higher fertility, reversing trends is unlikely given societal changes, particularly gender equality and evolving family dynamics. For southern states, the pressing question is: who will replace the shrinking workforce? Developed countries have responded by promoting active ageing, extending working life, and improving productivity among older populations.
India faces a similar challenge. Experts stress the need to raise retirement ages, invest in health programs to ensure prolonged productive years, and strengthen social security systems. Additionally, India must better harness its demographic dividend—the economic advantage of a large working-age population. According to Goli, India has an opportunity until 2047 to create jobs, grow its economy, and prepare for its ageing population. “We’re only tapping into 15-20% of our potential demographic dividend. We can—and must—do much better,” he concludes.
