British Prime Minister Andy Burnham has revised the government’s controversial early prison release programme following mounting public and political criticism over the possibility that people convicted of serious crimes could benefit from the changes. The revised policy will exclude offenders convicted of unlawful killing, including manslaughter, as well as several other serious offences, in an attempt to address concerns from victims’ families, police organisations and the wider public.
The changes are due to come into effect from October 1, 2026, as part of wider sentencing reforms aimed at easing severe overcrowding in prisons across England and Wales. Under the original plans, certain prisoners serving standard determinate sentences would have been released after serving a smaller proportion of their custodial term. Prisoners who currently become eligible for release after serving 40% or 50% of their sentence would, in some cases, have been released after serving one-third, while those normally released after two-thirds could leave prison after serving half their sentence. The remainder of their sentence would continue in the community under licence and supervision.
The proposal triggered particularly strong criticism after it emerged that the killers of police officer PC Andrew Harper could potentially have qualified for early release. Harper, 28, died in August 2019 after being struck while responding to a quad bike theft in Berkshire. Jessie Cole and Albert Bowers, who were both 17 at the time, were sentenced to 13 years in custody after being convicted of manslaughter. Their possible eligibility for early release became a focal point of the campaign against the government’s original approach.
Under the revised rules, people serving sentences for unlawful killing will be excluded from the early release arrangements. The government has also moved to exclude offenders convicted of historical grooming offences, causing death by dangerous driving and causing or allowing the death of a child. Rape and serious child sexual offences had already been removed from the scope of the scheme following earlier changes announced by the government.
Burnham said the decision followed his understanding of the strength of public feeling, particularly the concerns raised by Harper’s family. He acknowledged that excluding additional categories of offenders would mean more prisoners remaining behind bars at a time when the prison estate is already under considerable pressure.
The government says the early release measures are necessary because the prison system is facing a serious capacity crisis. Adult male prisons in England and Wales are operating at around 98% capacity, while the government says years of insufficient investment and a relatively small increase in prison places have contributed to the problem. Ministers have warned that without measures to reduce the prison population, there could eventually be insufficient cells even for people newly arrested for serious offences.
The revised policy is expected to reduce the number of prisoners who will be released early. Earlier estimates suggested as many as 6,000 prisoners could have their custodial periods shortened, while government figures now indicate the number could be closer to 4,600. The change is therefore likely to leave the government with fewer additional prison places available to deal with new offenders entering the system.
To address some of the capacity problems, Burnham has also announced plans to end Imprisonment for Public Protection, or IPP, sentences during the current parliamentary term. The system was introduced in 2005 for offenders considered to pose a continuing risk to the public but was abolished for new cases in 2012. However, its abolition was not retrospective, leaving thousands of people still subject to IPP arrangements. Ministry of Justice figures show that 856 people remained in prison under IPP sentences as of June 2026, while more than 1,400 others who had been released had subsequently been recalled to custody.
Burnham argued that ending the remaining IPP sentences would address an injustice involving people who have already served their minimum tariffs but remain imprisoned because they have not been cleared for release. The government plans to introduce legislation to bring the system to an end by the close of the parliamentary term, although prison experts have warned that the measure is unlikely to provide a rapid solution to the immediate capacity crisis.
The prime minister has also promised tougher supervision for prisoners who are released early. Measures will include electronic tagging and restrictions designed to prevent offenders from entering areas close to their victims. The government says these measures are intended to ensure that release from prison does not mean the end of supervision or accountability.
While police groups and victims’ organisations have broadly welcomed the decision to keep serious offenders, including Harper’s killers, in prison for longer, prison reform organisations have expressed concern about the wider consequences. They argue that the government’s latest move could further intensify pressure on an already overcrowded prison estate and undermine broader sentencing reforms designed to improve rehabilitation.
Campaigners have urged ministers to focus on long-term measures such as rehabilitation, reducing reoffending and developing systems in which prisoners can earn earlier release through demonstrated progress. They warn that simply keeping more people behind bars without expanding capacity or improving rehabilitation could make prisons increasingly difficult to manage.
The government is expected to provide further details of the revised arrangements when Parliament returns. The challenge for Burnham will be to balance public demands for tougher treatment of serious offenders with the immediate need to prevent the prison system from reaching a critical capacity point.
