The Irish government has warned that up to 80,000 jobs could be lost if Donald Trump initiates a trade war with the European Union. Meanwhile, officials have pushed back against U.S. accusations that Ireland operates a “tax scam.”
The potential job losses amount to nearly half of Ireland’s multinational workforce, a sector Trump is expected to target in efforts to bring jobs and tax revenue back to the U.S. Finance Minister Paschal Donohoe told RTÉ that, in the worst-case scenario, between 50,000 and 80,000 jobs that would have otherwise been created or retained in the economy could be lost.
Ireland’s government also refuted claims by U.S. Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick, who alleged that Ireland was engaged in tax manipulation. Enterprise Minister Peter Burke dismissed Lutnick’s assertions—who had previously criticized Ireland’s trade surplus with the U.S.—as incorrect. Burke emphasized that Ireland has numerous tax treaties within the EU and upholds high transparency standards. He also highlighted Ireland’s role in the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) agreement that raised the corporate tax rate from 12.5% to 15%.
Lutnick, speaking on the podcast, singled out Ireland, claiming the country had a $60 billion budget surplus while the U.S. faced a $2 trillion deficit—an exaggerated figure compared to Ireland’s actual €25 billion surplus in 2024, which included a €14 billion windfall from Apple’s back taxes after a long legal dispute.
Official government data shows that Ireland actually ran a trade deficit of nearly €93 billion with the U.S. last year when both goods and services were considered. While Ireland had a €70 billion surplus in goods, it faced a €163 billion deficit in services.
Trump has already announced that he will impose tariffs on the EU starting April 2, referring to it as “liberation day.” During a recent Oval Office meeting with the Irish Taoiseach, Trump reportedly set his sights on U.S. pharmaceutical companies operating in Ireland, such as Pfizer and Eli Lilly.
Experts warn that changes to U.S. tax policies could pose a greater threat to Ireland’s life sciences sector than tariffs, as pharmaceutical companies are unlikely to shut down plants that take years to establish. However, other industries, such as alcohol, could face collateral damage. Trump has threatened a 200% tariff in response to the EU’s proposed additional taxes on American whiskey imports. Ireland exports approximately €800 million worth of alcohol to the U.S. annually, with over half coming from brands like Jameson, Teeling, and Connemara Irish whiskey.
A recent report by Ireland’s Economic and Social Research Institute indicated that the Irish economy could contract by up to 3.7% if a full-scale trade war unfolds. Sinn Féin’s Pearse Doherty told RTÉ that his party would support Brexit-style financial assistance for businesses affected by the dispute.
