Climate change is altering the geographical pattern of malaria risk across Africa, with parts of southern and East Africa emerging as increasingly vulnerable areas as rising temperatures make previously cooler regions more suitable for malaria transmission, according to a new study published in Nature. The research suggests that the impact of global warming on malaria is not uniform across the continent. Instead, climate change is redistributing the disease burden, increasing the risk in some regions while potentially reducing it in areas that are already much hotter.
The study, which examined the relationship between human-caused climate change and childhood malaria across sub-Saharan Africa, provides one of the most detailed assessments yet of how changing temperatures are influencing the infectious disease. Researchers used more than a century of clinical and environmental information, including historical blood-test records, climate data and computer modelling, to compare malaria patterns under actual climate conditions with what might have occurred without human-driven warming. The findings indicate that rising temperatures have contributed to an increase in malaria risk in parts of East and southern Africa, particularly in areas that were historically too cool to support conditions favourable to transmission.
According to the research, the overall continental effect may appear relatively modest when averaged across Africa, but this masks major differences between regions. Cooler parts of the Ethiopian highlands, the East African Rift region and southern Africa are expected to experience increased malaria risk as temperatures rise. In contrast, some traditionally high-risk areas of West Africa could see a reduction in malaria prevalence because temperatures may increasingly move beyond the range most suitable for malaria-carrying mosquitoes and the parasites they transmit.
The researchers emphasised that this does not mean climate change will make malaria disappear from hotter parts of Africa or that global warming represents a public-health benefit. Instead, the findings demonstrate how climate change can shift the location and intensity of disease transmission. Regions that have historically had comparatively limited experience with malaria could face a greater health burden as their climatic conditions become more favourable to mosquito survival and parasite development.
Temperature plays a particularly important role because malaria transmission depends on a complex interaction between mosquitoes, malaria parasites and environmental conditions. Changes in temperature can affect both mosquito populations and the speed at which malaria parasites develop inside mosquitoes. As a result, even relatively small changes in climate can influence the duration and intensity of transmission in locations close to the environmental limits required for the disease to spread.
The study also highlights the importance of looking beyond simple assumptions that a warmer planet will automatically produce more malaria everywhere. The relationship between climate and malaria is highly regional. In some areas, warming could increase transmission, while in others, temperatures could become less suitable for mosquitoes. Rainfall and extreme weather events can further complicate the picture by affecting mosquito breeding environments and disrupting health services.
Another major concern is that climate-related changes could occur in areas where communities and healthcare systems are less prepared for increased malaria transmission. Southern and East African regions identified as vulnerable to future increases may not have the same historical experience of sustained malaria transmission as some parts of tropical Africa. This could create new challenges for surveillance, diagnosis, prevention and treatment if disease risk increases.
The findings come amid growing evidence that climate change is becoming an important factor in the future of malaria control. A separate Nature study published earlier this year estimated that, under current malaria-control levels, climate change could contribute to 123 million additional malaria cases and around 532,000 additional deaths in Africa between 2024 and 2050. That research found that extreme weather events, rather than temperature-driven changes alone, could account for a substantial share of the additional burden.
Experts say the latest findings reinforce the need for malaria-control strategies to become more responsive to changing environmental conditions. Surveillance systems will need to identify emerging hotspots, while prevention programmes may have to be expanded or adjusted in regions where malaria risk begins to rise. Early diagnosis, effective treatment, mosquito-control measures and access to preventive tools such as insecticide-treated bed nets will remain essential.
The researchers also stressed that climate change is only one factor influencing malaria. Public-health interventions, healthcare access, socioeconomic conditions, land-use changes and disease-control programmes can have a much greater immediate influence on malaria prevalence. Therefore, the changing climate should be viewed as an additional pressure on existing malaria-control efforts rather than as the sole explanation for future disease patterns.
The study ultimately presents climate change as a factor that could redraw the malaria map of Africa over the coming decades. While some historically high-burden regions may experience declining climatic suitability, other areas could see increased transmission as warming creates more favourable conditions. Researchers say understanding these geographical shifts will be crucial for directing health resources, strengthening disease surveillance and ensuring that malaria-prevention programmes are prepared for a changing climate.
