As Canada heads into an election year, the opposition Conservative Party is achieving unprecedented support levels, with nearly 50% backing, according to a recent poll.
Although federal elections are scheduled for October, the increasingly unstable government of Prime Minister Justin Trudeau may face an earlier contest, potentially as soon as spring. The Conservatives plan to introduce a no-confidence motion when the House of Commons reconvenes in late January, capitalizing on their substantial lead of at least 20 percentage points over the ruling Liberals, as reflected in several surveys conducted in late 2024.
The most recent poll, conducted by Nanos Research and released on December 31, places Conservative support at 46.6% in federal ballot tracking. If sustained, this level of support would likely secure the party a commanding majority in the next Parliament.
“Conservative support has reached a long-term high, with a 26-point lead over the Liberals,” noted Nik Nanos, the Chief Data Scientist at Nanos Research. “This surge coincides with mounting calls for Trudeau to step down and growing economic concerns, as worry about jobs and the economy has hit a four-year high.”
The political woes are not limited to Trudeau. New Democratic Party (NDP) leader Jagmeet Singh, whose agreement with the Liberals ended in September 2024, has faced criticism for propping up Trudeau’s government in recent no-confidence votes, including one tied to his own critiques of the administration. Singh’s party has also seen a dip in voter support.
Nik Nanos told CTV News, “As we move into 2025, the biggest winner is Pierre Poilievre and the Conservatives, while the biggest losers are both Justin Trudeau and Jagmeet Singh, as their parties continue to lose ground.”
However, even modest support could be a relief for Trudeau’s Liberals. A December poll from the Angus Reid Institute showed Liberal support plummeting to a historic low of 16%, underscoring the depth of voter discontent. Trudeau is reportedly under intense pressure from his caucus to step aside.
Despite the turmoil, Trudeau’s New Year message gave no indication of a resignation. In a statement brimming with optimism, he reflected on his government’s achievements: “As we count down to midnight tonight, I invite Canadians to join me in celebrating all that we have achieved together in 2024 and in looking toward a better and fairer future in the new year.”
With political dynamics shifting rapidly, all eyes will be on the coming weeks as opposition forces push for a spring election and Trudeau faces mounting challenges to his leadership.
