Tennessee has unexpectedly emerged as a pivotal battleground ahead of the 2 December special election to fill a vacant congressional seat, with both national parties pouring resources into a district long considered safely Republican. What would usually be a quiet contest has turned into a high-stakes political showdown, marked by high-profile visits, sharpened messaging, and growing signs of unease within the GOP as Donald Trump’s influence shows fresh cracks.
At a recent Lincoln Day Dinner in the small town of Crab Orchard, Tennessee Republican Party Chair Scott Golden warned supporters that Democrats were making an aggressive push. His caution came as the state saw an influx of Democratic attention: the party’s national chair held a rally in the district earlier this month, and former Vice-President Kamala Harris visited canvassers last week, telling supporters she was there because “the power is in the South”.
Despite the district’s conservative history — Trump carried it by 22 points in the presidential race — both parties are treating the election as competitive. Analysts say Republicans face a motivated Democratic base while many GOP voters appear unaware an election is even underway. Political observers note the race is tightening against the backdrop of Trump’s weakened grip on the party, punctuated by conservative firebrand Marjorie Taylor Greene’s abrupt resignation from Congress. In her departure speech, she declared that neither party had improved life for ordinary Americans, highlighting growing conservative frustrations.
Though the Tennessee result alone will not change control of the House of Representatives, a Republican loss could deepen internal GOP anxieties heading into next year’s midterm elections, especially as Trump faces mounting scrutiny and drag from national economic discontent. The contest is unfolding just weeks after local elections nationwide saw voters lean toward Democratic candidates campaigning on affordability. In response, Republicans — including Trump — have scrambled to reorient their message, with the president announcing tariff cuts on groceries and proposing 50-year mortgages and tariff rebates for low- and middle-income Americans. But the policy rollout has been rocky, revealing ideological rifts even among his supporters.
On the ground in Tennessee, voter concerns mirror those in other recent battlegrounds: rising prices, inflation and cost-of-living pressures have taken centre stage. A recent nationwide poll by Vanderbilt University found that more than 60% of Trump supporters believe the cost of living has not improved in the past year. Experts say this has soured public mood and complicated Republican efforts to campaign on economic strength.
Amid this backdrop, Democratic nominee Aftyn Behn has focused her campaign squarely on local issues, emphasising food security, infrastructure and healthcare. Her messaging — “Feed kids, fix roads, fund hospitals” — aims to rally voters frustrated with Washington’s political chaos and rising expenses. She has also criticised her Republican opponent Matt Van Epps for his ties to national GOP leaders.
Van Epps, a military veteran who won his primary with Trump’s endorsement, has downplayed the former president in the general election campaign, instead echoing Democrats by stressing economic concerns. His adverts and public remarks call for tackling high inflation and restoring affordability, signalling a broader shift among Republicans away from culture-war themes and toward bread-and-butter issues.
The Tennessee race underscores the party’s growing challenge: Trump’s popularity remains strong among his loyal base, but his ability to help other Republicans win in elections where he is not on the ballot has been inconsistent. Republicans have faced repeated disappointments in recent elections, fuelling questions about how the party will navigate an eventual post-Trump era. Even in Tennessee, where Trump remains dominant, internal strains are evident. Farmers and ranchers have felt the sting of tariffs, healthcare subsidies are set to expire, and persistent high prices affect daily life.
Still, many Republican voters remain fiercely loyal to Trump. At the Crab Orchard dinner, some attendees acknowledged his flaws but insisted he is still the strongest leader for the country. Others described him as abrasive but necessary. This dynamic — scepticism paired with steadfast support — has long defined Trump’s hold on the GOP.
Whether Democrats can deliver a surprise win in Tennessee remains uncertain. They have hoped for upsets in deep-red districts before, only to fall short. But political analysts warn the ground is shifting. Voters across the country have repeatedly demanded change over the past decade — and in this election, that desire could give Democrat Aftyn Behn an unexpected opening.
