For cattle farmer Peter Lake, living with floods has long been part of life in Australia’s Clarence Valley in northern New South Wales. When he purchased his farm in 2007, he was aware that the property was situated in an area vulnerable to flooding. But the scale and frequency of flooding have changed significantly over the years, leaving less land available for livestock and raising concerns about the future viability of farming in the region.
Lake’s property, located between Yamba and Grafton and bordering the Coldstream River, has experienced five floods since 2009. Under normal conditions, he has systems in place to protect his cattle, including moving them to higher paddocks and storing fodder in areas expected to remain dry. However, major floods have increasingly reduced the amount of land that can be relied upon as a safe refuge.
During the devastating 2022 floods, only a few acres of Lake’s 130-acre property remained above water. The flooding came on top of periods of drought, making it increasingly difficult for the farmer to grow enough fodder to sustain his cattle. The combination of prolonged dry conditions and repeated flooding has created a difficult cycle for agricultural producers in the region.
Lake’s experience is increasingly being viewed as part of a much larger national challenge. A new report by the Climate Council has warned that rising sea levels and coastal flooding could cause enormous economic damage across Australia by the end of the century. The report estimates that more than 267,000 coastal properties and around two million hectares of Australian land could be affected by flooding by 2100.
The projected economic losses are estimated at approximately A$855.1 billion, including around A$274.3 billion in property losses and A$580.7 billion in damages associated with land use. The modelling suggests that Queensland, New South Wales and Western Australia will face some of the greatest impacts, with 93,157 properties in Queensland, 71,210 in New South Wales and 51,366 in Western Australia potentially affected.
Major Australian cities are also expected to face significant consequences. The Gold Coast is identified as the country’s most exposed metropolitan area, with projected economic losses of about A$84.4 billion. Brisbane and Melbourne are also expected to experience substantial impacts, particularly in low-lying areas. In Melbourne, vulnerable locations include areas around Port Phillip Bay and the Yarra River.
The report’s projections are based on coastal flooding associated with sea-level rise and storm surges under a climate scenario in which global temperatures increase by about 2.7C by the end of the century. Researchers say the economic estimates are conservative because they do not fully account for additional damage from coastal erosion or potentially larger ice-sheet losses.
Professor Tom Kompas of the University of Melbourne, who co-authored the report, said the agricultural consequences could also create concerns for Australia’s food security. The modelling indicates that about 619,713 hectares of agricultural land could be affected by coastal flooding.
Scientists have recorded a global average sea-level rise of more than 22cm since 1900, with human-caused global warming becoming the dominant driver of the increase since the 1970s. Australia is expected to experience a further rise of about 14cm by 2050, increasing the frequency of tidal flooding and permanent inundation in vulnerable areas.
For communities already living with floods, the changes could make familiar adaptation measures increasingly inadequate. Lake said that if major floods become more frequent and severe, farming communities will need to reconsider how they manage their properties and prepare for extreme weather.
Researchers argue that reducing greenhouse gas emissions remains essential, but they also stress that adaptation cannot be delayed. Better planning, improved mapping of vulnerable areas and restrictions on new construction in flood-prone locations will be crucial to limiting future losses.
Kompas said identifying the areas and assets most exposed to flooding provides governments and communities with an opportunity to plan ahead. One of the most straightforward measures, he argued, is to avoid further development on floodplains.
For farmers such as Lake, however, the challenge is already being felt on the ground. With less dry land available during floods, reduced fodder production and growing climate pressures, the question is no longer simply how to recover after the next flood, but whether some agricultural properties will remain economically viable as Australia’s coastline and climate continue to change.
