Super El Niño could trigger fresh global food inflation

A developing “super El Niño” weather phenomenon could trigger a fresh wave of global food inflation, disrupting agricultural production, straining supply chains and pushing food prices higher well into 2028, according to economists and climate experts. The emerging climate pattern, combined with geopolitical tensions that have already driven up energy and transportation costs, is being viewed as a major threat to global food security and household budgets across several countries.

El Niño is a naturally occurring climate event marked by the warming of sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern Pacific Ocean. While the phenomenon typically develops every few years, scientists say the current cycle has a significant chance of intensifying into a “very strong” or “super” El Niño. Such an event has historically been associated with extreme weather conditions, including prolonged droughts, severe heatwaves, intense rainfall and flooding across different regions of the world, all of which can adversely affect crop production.

Experts warn that the timing of this climate event is particularly concerning because it coincides with elevated global energy prices and supply chain disruptions. The combination of weather-related crop losses and higher production costs for fertilisers, diesel and food transportation could amplify inflationary pressures worldwide. Financial analysts believe that while food inflation caused solely by El Niño would already be substantial, the additional burden of rising energy costs could nearly double its impact on consumers.

Forecasts indicate that global food commodity prices could witness a significant increase if weather conditions continue to deteriorate. Some analysts estimate that international food commodity prices may rise by nearly 16 per cent during the current cycle, while climate-risk assessments suggest that global agricultural output could decline sharply under an extreme El Niño scenario. Such production losses would affect the availability of major food commodities including rice, wheat, sugar, coffee, cocoa and palm oil, resulting in higher prices in international markets.

The impact is expected to vary across regions. Emerging economies in Asia and Latin America, where food accounts for a larger share of household spending and agriculture remains highly dependent on weather conditions, are considered particularly vulnerable. Countries such as India, Indonesia, Brazil and Colombia are expected to face stronger inflationary pressures than many advanced economies. Developed nations may experience relatively smaller direct impacts on food production but could still witness higher retail food prices due to increased transportation and energy expenses.

India has already begun witnessing signs of weather-related stress, with reports indicating weaker-than-normal monsoon rainfall in several regions. Reduced rainfall during the crucial sowing season could affect the production of rice, wheat and sugarcane if conditions persist. Similar concerns have emerged across parts of Southeast Asia, where drought could reduce palm oil output, while excessive rainfall in parts of South America may damage crops and disrupt harvesting operations. Coffee and cocoa production in some regions could also suffer due to changing temperature and rainfall patterns.

Economists note that consumers may not experience the full impact immediately because agricultural production follows seasonal planting and harvesting cycles. Food harvested under adverse weather conditions takes months to move through processing, transportation and retail supply chains before reaching consumers. Consequently, the strongest inflationary effects may emerge gradually and continue through 2027, with some forecasts suggesting that elevated food prices could persist into the second half of 2028.

Despite these concerns, analysts point out that current global grain inventories and rice stocks remain healthier than during some previous El Niño episodes, offering a limited buffer against immediate shortages. However, they caution that prolonged extreme weather, coupled with sustained high energy prices, could quickly erode these reserves and intensify pressure on global food markets. The situation has prompted economists to closely monitor climate forecasts, agricultural production and inflation trends over the coming months as governments and policymakers prepare for the possibility of renewed food price volatility.