A powerful El Niño weather phenomenon expected to develop later this year could spark a prolonged surge in global food prices, with economists warning that the effects may continue well into 2028 as extreme weather disrupts agricultural production and strains already fragile supply chains.
According to climate scientists and market analysts, the developing 2026-27 El Niño has an unusually high probability of becoming one of the strongest on record. The event, caused by abnormal warming of surface waters across the central and eastern Pacific Ocean, is expected to intensify droughts, floods, heatwaves and storms across several agricultural regions, threatening the production of key food commodities worldwide.
The warning comes at a time when global food markets are already under pressure from geopolitical tensions and supply disruptions. Economists say the combination of conflict-related uncertainties and climate-driven production losses could create a “double shock” for food supply chains, increasing costs for governments, businesses and consumers alike.
The US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) has indicated that warming conditions are rapidly strengthening in the Pacific Ocean, with a 63% probability that sea surface temperatures will rise more than 2 degrees Celsius above average later this year. Such conditions are generally associated with a very strong or “super” El Niño, a rare event capable of dramatically altering global weather patterns.
Experts note that previous major El Niño episodes in 1982-83, 1997-98, 2015-16 and 2023-24 triggered widespread agricultural disruptions, causing severe droughts in some regions while bringing devastating floods to others. The current projections suggest that the upcoming event could prove even more intense, increasing the likelihood of significant crop failures and disruptions to international food trade.
Financial institutions monitoring commodity markets have already begun assessing the potential economic fallout. Analysts estimate that global food commodity prices could rise by nearly 16% if the weather event develops as forecast. Although the immediate impact may be limited, economists caution that food inflation usually appears with a delay because crops are planted, harvested and transported at different times across regions. As a result, consumers may continue to experience higher prices through the second half of 2028.
Several essential commodities are expected to face the greatest risk. Rice, coffee, sugar, cocoa and palm oil are considered especially vulnerable because they are cultivated in regions highly exposed to El Niño-related droughts or excessive rainfall. Palm oil production in Southeast Asia could decline due to prolonged dry conditions, while coffee and cocoa harvests may suffer from both heat stress and disease outbreaks encouraged by changing weather patterns. Lower production of these commodities could ripple through the global food industry, affecting prices of processed foods, beverages and household essentials.
Economists have also warned that disruptions may not be limited to farming alone. Reduced water levels in major rivers and canals used for international shipping could hamper transportation, delay exports and increase freight costs, further adding to inflationary pressures. These logistical challenges are expected to amplify the impact of lower agricultural output on global food availability.
Some analysts estimate that an extreme El Niño scenario could reduce global agricultural production by more than 14%, translating into economic losses of approximately 342 billion US dollars. Under severe conditions, price increases for staple commodities could range between 10% and 50%, while the most vulnerable crops—including rice, sugar, coffee and palm oil—could witness price spikes of 50% to 100% or even higher.
The extent to which consumers ultimately feel the impact will depend on domestic government policies, food reserves, import strategies and retail pricing practices. Wealthier countries may be better positioned to absorb some of the inflationary pressures, but economists caution that lower-income nations with greater dependence on food imports are likely to face the greatest challenges, potentially worsening food insecurity and economic hardship.
Climate experts say the anticipated El Niño serves as another reminder of the increasing interaction between natural climate cycles and human-induced global warming. As weather extremes become more frequent and intense, governments, agricultural producers and policymakers are being urged to strengthen climate resilience, diversify food supply chains and improve preparedness to reduce the long-term impact of future climate-related shocks.
