Air travel between Canada and the U.S. is experiencing a sharp decline amid Donald Trump’s ongoing tariff war, with flight bookings dropping by over 70%, according to newly released data.
Aviation analytics firm OAG reports that airline capacity between the two countries has been scaled back through October 2025, with the most significant reductions occurring in July and August—traditionally the peak travel season. Passenger bookings for Canada-U.S. routes have plummeted by more than 70% compared to the same period last year.
Analyzing flight reservations from March 2024 to March 2025, OAG found that bookings for trans-border flights between April and September have decreased by 71% to 76%. In response to falling demand, airlines have also reduced available seating, cutting more than 320,000 seats through October. The steepest reductions—3.5%—are scheduled for the summer months.
Despite these capacity adjustments, the sharp drop in bookings indicates that airlines have not fully accounted for the waning interest in U.S. travel. Many Canadian travelers appear hesitant to book flights, likely due to uncertainty over the ongoing tariff conflict. Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney has criticized Trump’s latest tariffs as a “direct attack” on Canadian workers.
While a decline in travel was anticipated, the drastic 70% decrease may force airlines—especially Air Canada, which operates the most cross-border routes—to rethink their strategies.
Beyond the trade dispute, some Canadians are also reportedly wary of traveling to the U.S. due to concerns over high-profile incidents involving foreign visitors being detained by ICE.
