Trump tariffs: Boon for Vietnam and bane for China?

President Donald Trump has announced a fresh delay in the introduction of sweeping tariffs that had been scheduled to take effect on July 9. In a move that has surprised both markets and global trade partners, Trump confirmed the new effective date is now August 1, pushing back the deadline yet again. The delay comes amid an intensified scramble by U.S. officials to seal trade agreements—particularly with the European Union, Canada, India, Vietnam and other key economic players—before the tariffs take hold.

The tariffs under discussion stem from Trump’s “Liberation Day” measure declared in early April, which imposed a universal 10 percent baseline tariff on most imports, with additional “reciprocal” duties set to escalate dramatically if no deals were struck. As the initial 90‑day negotiation window expired on July 8, the implementation timeline was extended. Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick clarified that although the tariff rates themselves have been finalized, actual enforcement has been rescheduled to August 1 to allow more room for negotiations.

Trump defended the delay, stating letters notifying trade partners of the impending tariffs will begin circulating next Monday. He emphasized that the base rate remains at 10 percent while warning that nations aligning with the BRICS bloc—Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa—could face an additional 10 percent surcharge in response to what he called their “anti‑American” stance.

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent added that several significant negotiations are nearing completion, especially with the EU, which continues to press for exemptions on steel and automotive imports. The United States is reportedly exploring a “framework deal” that would pause tariffs in exchange for policy concessions from Brussels. Meanwhile, discussions are progressing with Canada—following the withdrawal of its digital services tax—as well as with India, Vietnam, Thailand, South Korea and China.

Despite these diplomatic efforts, momentum toward formal trade agreements remains slower than anticipated. Only about a dozen preliminary deals are reportedly underway, a far cry from Trump’s aim of covering 90 nations in 90 days . Key confrontations persist, such as with Japan, which has resisted opening its rice market, triggering Trump threats of tariffs up to 35 percent. The EU remains particularly cautious, and analysts now expect only a partial “political framework”—not a comprehensive treaty—to emerge.

Markets have responded to the shifting timeline with mounting volatility. Asian and European equities have seen modest pullbacks recently, and prices for industrial metals have softened in anticipation of changes in U.S. industrial sector tariffs. Some experts warn that the drawn‑out uncertainty could suppress global investment and weigh on U.S. consumer sentiment, underpinning concerns of an upcoming slowdown .

Meanwhile, legal challenges around Trump’s trade authority have added another layer of complexity. In late May, a federal trade court invalidated the directive applying tariffs under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA), though the administration is currently appealing the decision. The ruling has not yet altered policy but raises questions about whether the tariffs can stand if negotiations falter.

Looking ahead, all eyes are on the new August 1 deadline. If agreements remain unfinished by then, the U.S. may begin implementing reciprocal tariffs at the levels originally scheduled—and possibly an extra 10 percent on BRICS countries. That could reignite fears of a global trade war, with EU food, automotive goods and other sensitive sectors potentially impacted. In turn, U.S. consumers and mid‑size companies—already stretched by inflation—could face higher costs.

In short, Trump’s tariff strategy has become a game of economic brinkmanship: using delays and threats to extract concessions without triggering immediate damage. Whether that tactic will secure enough diplomatic breakthroughs to avert economic fallout—or simply prolong uncertainty—remains uncertain as August looms.

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