On 5 November, voters across the US will head to the polls to choose their next president. Originally, the election was set to be a rematch of 2020, but in July, President Joe Biden withdrew from the race, throwing his support behind Vice-President Kamala Harris.
The key question now is whether the result will lead to a second term for Donald Trump or see America’s first woman president. As election day nears, we’ll keep an eye on the polls, noting how major events like the upcoming presidential debate impact the race.
Before Biden’s decision to exit, polls consistently showed him trailing Trump. While hypothetical at that time, some polls also indicated that Harris might struggle against Trump. However, after she launched her campaign, the race became tighter, with Harris gaining a slight lead over Trump in national polling averages, a lead that she has since maintained.
Harris reached 47% in national polls during her party’s convention in Chicago, which concluded on 22 August, where she pledged a “new way forward” for the country. Since then, her numbers have remained stable. Trump’s support has hovered around 44%, with no noticeable bump from the endorsement of Robert F. Kennedy, who ended his independent campaign on 23 August.
While national polls provide a general sense of a candidate’s popularity, they are not always the best predictor of the election outcome due to the US electoral college system. What matters more is where votes are won, particularly in battleground states, where both candidates have a shot at victory.
Right now, polling in these key battlegrounds is extremely close, making it difficult to discern a clear leader. In some states, like Pennsylvania—which holds a significant number of electoral votes—the race is neck and neck. Winning states like Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin, which Trump flipped in 2016 but Biden reclaimed in 2020, will be crucial for Harris if she hopes to secure the presidency.
Interestingly, when Biden dropped out, he was trailing Trump by nearly five percentage points in the battleground states. Since Harris has taken the lead, the race has tightened considerably. The polling data referenced is sourced from 538, a polling analysis website associated with News, which aggregates data from multiple reputable polls, factoring in methodologies and polling transparency.
Currently, the polls suggest that Harris and Trump are nearly tied both nationally and in battleground states, making the race highly unpredictable. Polls previously underestimated Trump’s support in 2016 and 2020, and pollsters are working to refine their methods to avoid similar miscalculations. However, predicting voter turnout remains challenging, adding further uncertainty to the final outcome.
