The coldest Arctic blast of the season is set to deliver another frigid shock to America’s winter, which has already seen multiple polar vortex disruptions, meteorologists warn. This deep freeze is expected to linger throughout next week.
Meteorologists explain that a combination of atmospheric forces in the Arctic is pushing extremely cold air—typically confined to the North Pole—down into both the U.S. and Europe. According to Judah Cohen, seasonal forecast director at Atmospheric and Environmental Research, this marks the 10th instance this winter of the polar vortex stretching southward, an event that usually occurs only two or three times in a typical season.
This winter has been anything but normal, with record snowfall in New Orleans and devastating wildfires in Southern California. The upcoming cold spell is forecasted to hit the northern Rockies and northern Plains first on Saturday before settling in for the week. The chill will mainly affect areas east of the Rockies, with only the far western U.S. and central and southern Florida escaping its grip.
Private meteorologist Ryan Maue predicts that on Tuesday, the average low temperature across the contiguous U.S. will be around 16.6°F, dropping further to 14°F on Wednesday. Strong winds will exacerbate the cold, with the National Weather Service warning that nearly every U.S. state—except Hawaii, California, and Florida—could experience wind chills of 20°F or lower at some point next week.
The most intense cold is expected in Kansas, Nebraska, Missouri, and Iowa, where temperatures could plummet as much as 35°F below normal, said Zack Taylor from the National Weather Service’s Weather Prediction Center. NOAA models project subzero lows in states including Oklahoma, Colorado, Nebraska, Missouri, Illinois, Iowa, Kansas, Wyoming, Montana, and much of the northern Midwest.
Meteorologists are also monitoring the potential for storms, including flooding, heavy snowfall, or even a nor’easter, though specific details remain uncertain.
“This is the depths of winter, and everything points to extreme, biting cold,” Maue said, noting that while this is not the first polar vortex event this season, it appears to be the most severe.
Unlike polar vortex collapses—where sudden warming weakens the vortex and allows Arctic air to spill south—this event involves a “stretching” of the vortex. The core remains strong, but the cold air is being pulled and bent, often affecting the U.S. more than Europe, Cohen explained.
Scientists are interested in why these stretching events have been so frequent this winter, though NOAA meteorologist Laura Ciasto suggests it may simply be natural variability.
One contributing factor is a high-pressure system over Greenland, which is shifting westward, altering the jet stream’s flow and allowing Arctic air to plunge deep into the U.S., Cohen added. Climate change may also be playing a role by making the jet stream more erratic, said Martin Stendel from Denmark’s National Center for Climate Research.
Despite the unusually harsh winter in the U.S., global temperatures continue to rise. January set another record for global warmth, marking the 18th month out of the last 19 that Earth has exceeded the internationally recognized 1.5°C warming threshold above pre-industrial levels.
