China has given the green light for the construction of what is set to become the world’s largest hydropower dam, raising concerns about potential displacement of communities in Tibet and environmental impacts downstream in India and Bangladesh.
Located on the lower Yarlung Tsangpo River, the dam is expected to generate three times more energy than the Three Gorges Dam, which is currently the largest hydropower plant in the world.
Chinese state media has called the project “safe” and one that emphasizes ecological protection, claiming it will enhance local prosperity and contribute to China’s climate neutrality goals. However, human rights groups and experts have voiced concerns about its consequences.
There are fears that the dam, announced in late 2020, could displace local populations and drastically alter the landscape, potentially harming ecosystems that are some of the most diverse on the Tibetan Plateau.
China has previously built several dams in Tibetan areas, a sensitive issue in a region tightly controlled by Beijing since its annexation in the 1950s. Activists have criticized these developments as part of Beijing’s ongoing exploitation of Tibetans and their land. Tibet, mainly Buddhist, has experienced years of crackdowns that have led to thousands of deaths.
Earlier this year, Chinese authorities detained hundreds of Tibetans protesting against another hydropower dam project. They faced arrests and violence, with some suffering severe injuries. These protests were in opposition to the Gangtuo dam, which would displace villages and flood ancient monasteries. Beijing, however, claimed it had relocated and compensated locals and preserved the monasteries’ relics.
For the Yarlung Tsangpo dam, China has assured that the project will not significantly impact the environment, though it has not disclosed how many people will be displaced. For comparison, the Three Gorges Dam required the resettlement of 1.4 million people.
Reports indicate that the project will involve constructing four 20-kilometer tunnels through the Namcha Barwa mountain to divert the river’s flow. There are also concerns that the dam will give China control over the trans-border river, which flows through India’s Arunachal Pradesh and Assam states and into Bangladesh.
A 2020 report by the Lowy Institute, an Australian think tank, noted that control over rivers in the Tibetan Plateau could give China significant leverage over India’s economy. In response to these concerns, India’s government has explored the development of a large hydropower project of its own to counteract the potential impact of China’s dams.
China’s foreign ministry has stated that the country has a “legitimate right” to dam the river and has considered the downstream effects. Over the past decade, China has built multiple hydropower plants along the Yarlung Tsangpo to harness the river’s potential for renewable energy. The river flows through the world’s deepest canyon, with one section dropping 2,000 meters over just 50 kilometers, offering tremendous hydropower potential.
However, the river’s challenging topography presents major engineering obstacles. The dam will be China’s largest and most ambitious hydropower project to date. The construction site is located in an earthquake-prone region, and Chinese researchers have warned that such extensive work in the steep gorge could lead to landslides.
An engineer from Sichuan’s geological bureau said in 2022 that earthquake-triggered landslides and mud-rock flows could pose significant risks to the project.
The estimated cost of the development could reach up to one trillion yuan ($127 billion; £109.3 billion), according to the Chongyi Water Resources Bureau.
