Nearly half of the experts surveyed by a climate think tank believe that China’s carbon dioxide emissions have already reached peak level or will do so by 2025. This reflects growing optimism about the country’s green transition, as it faces increasing pressure to lead global climate action.
A report by the Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air (CREA), published on Tuesday, revealed that 44% of climate experts from academia and industry expect China’s CO2 emissions to peak by 2025 at the latest—a significant increase from last year’s 21%. Optimism about China’s coal reliance is also on the rise, with 36% of experts stating that coal consumption has already at peak, compared to 20% in the previous year.
China’s official climate targets include peaking carbon emissions by 2030 and achieving carbon neutrality by 2060. Additionally, its 14th five-year plan, which runs until 2025, pledges to “strictly control” coal use. Coal, responsible for nearly 80% of China’s fossil fuel emissions, remains a focal point of its climate strategy.
Wang Xiaojun, founder of the NGO People of Asia for Climate Solutions, noted that while China plans to reduce coal consumption after 2026, drastic cuts will be necessary to meet the 2060 carbon neutrality goal. However, concerns over energy security—heightened by power outages in 2021-22 and the Ukraine war’s impact on oil supplies—have delayed discussions about phasing out coal. Experts argue that diversifying the energy mix and improving renewable energy infrastructure could enhance energy security without relying on coal-fired plants.
China is a global leader in clean energy investment. CREA lead analyst Lauri Myllyvirta highlighted that clean energy contributed a record 11.4 trillion yuan (£154.4 billion) to China’s economy in 2023, becoming the primary driver of GDP growth. Post-Covid economic recovery has focused on “new three” industries—solar panels, electric vehicles, and batteries—which have attracted substantial investment.
CREA report co-author Shi Xunpeng emphasized that clean energy industries are becoming critical drivers of economic growth, with tangible benefits emerging as the transition progresses. Analysts are also watching China’s ability to reduce the carbon intensity of its economy—CO2 emissions per unit of electricity produced. Myllyvirta pointed out that aligning with the Paris Agreement would require either accelerating renewable energy deployment or shifting towards less energy-intensive economic development.
As the nation responsible for 90% of global CO2 emissions growth since 2015, China’s climate strategies will significantly influence the global transition. However, China’s approach to setting targets is generally conservative. Anders Hove, senior research fellow at the Oxford Institute for Energy Studies, remarked that China is unlikely to adopt more ambitious quantitative emissions targets than those currently in place, reflecting its “say what you can deliver” philosophy, which contrasts with the aspirational goals favored by some foreign leaders.
