Exclusive analysis has revealed that the UK’s death rate reaches a record low in 2024, returning to pre-pandemic levels and slightly improving on the previous low in 2019. However, experts caution that this marks only a modest continuation of long-term mortality trends.
The study, conducted by the Continuous Mortality Investigation (CMI) at the Institute and Faculty of Actuaries, found that while overall mortality has improved, progress has been stagnant over the past five years. Stuart McDonald of the CMI described the trend as “pretty poor by historical standards” and noted a concerning rise in death rates among young working-age individuals.
A spokesperson from the Department of Health stated that the government is prioritizing prevention over treatment to improve public health outcomes.
Between 1974 and 2011, the UK’s death rate steadily declined, primarily due to advancements in tackling heart disease through smoking reduction and medical progress. However, from 2011 onwards, mortality improvements slowed significantly, with the COVID-19 pandemic reversing the trend as excess deaths surged. Even in 2022, excess deaths remained high.
The record-low death rate of 989 per 100,000 people in 2024 was calculated using provisional weekly death registration data from across the UK.
While the decline is positive, health experts caution that the broader picture is less encouraging. Epidemiologist Dr. Veena Raleigh from The King’s Fund noted that while many developed nations saw mortality slowdowns after 2011, the UK’s decline was more severe, placing its life expectancy among the lowest in comparable countries. For example, Spain returned to pre-pandemic mortality rates by 2023.
Several factors have contributed to the slowdown, including the exhaustion of earlier public health gains—such as reduced smoking rates—and increasing risks like obesity, poor diet, and declining physical activity. Social inequalities and pressures on the NHS have also played a role. Some researchers link post-2008 austerity measures to declining life expectancy, though direct causation remains debated.
Currently, dementia and Alzheimer’s disease are the leading causes of death in England and Wales, followed by heart disease, lung disease, strokes, and lung cancer. Seasonal flu also remains a notable cause in some years.
Professor Bryan Williams OBE, chief scientific and medical officer at the British Heart Foundation, warned that cardiovascular disease remains a major cause of death in the UK. He highlighted that mortality reductions have plateaued, a concern worsened by the pandemic’s strain on healthcare. Early deaths from heart disease are rising in England’s most deprived areas, prompting calls for urgent government action in prevention, diagnosis, and treatment.
