Sending F-16 warplanes to Ukraine represents a significant victory for President Volodymyr Zelensky and will enhance the country’s defense against Russian attacks, though they won’t completely fill the gaps in Ukraine’s air defenses. On Wednesday, the United States, the Netherlands, and Denmark announced that the planes’ transfer had started, with Ukraine expected to have operational F-16s by the summer.
Zelensky had long advocated for the US-made warplanes to counter Russia’s invasion, and the United States agreed last year after initially recommending a focus on ground-based air defenses. According to Mark Cancian, a senior advisor at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, this transfer is symbolically significant, as it was the final defense item Zelensky had requested.
Cancian pointed out that the United States has previously hesitated but ultimately provided various advanced weapons systems to Ukraine, including HIMARS rocket launchers, Patriot air defense batteries, Abrams tanks, and ATACMS missiles. Each donation has had symbolic and psychological impacts, regardless of their battlefield effectiveness.
While the F-16s will bolster Ukraine’s air defenses, they won’t be a complete solution, especially given the limited number. Zelensky mentioned in a May interview with AFP that Ukraine needs up to 130 F-16s to achieve air parity with Russia, but Western pledges have so far fallen short of that number.
Russia has taken advantage of the gaps in Ukraine’s air defenses to carry out devastating strikes, resulting in significant civilian and infrastructure damage. Earlier this week, over 40 people died from a series of missile attacks, highlighting the urgent need for improved air defenses.
The lack of air superiority has also hindered Ukrainian military operations, contributing to the limited success of the 2023 counter-offensive. Zelensky welcomed the news of the F-16 transfer, asserting that the planes would help bring peace closer and demonstrate that terror cannot prevail.
Cancian believes that Ukraine will mainly use the F-16s for air defense, frontline support, and some strategic strikes within Russia. Michael Bohnert, an air and maritime acquisitions expert with the RAND Corporation, emphasized that the F-16 transfer indicates a long-term commitment to Ukraine, given the extensive logistics, support, and training involved.
Bohnert noted that F-16s could help intercept cruise missiles like those used in recent attacks on Kyiv and provide air defense in areas lacking ground-based systems. Additionally, these planes might force Russia to allocate resources to counter them both in the air and on the ground. He described Ukraine’s air defense strategy as a symphony, with the F-16s adding an essential element to their overall capabilities.
