Barring an unexpected turn of events, France is set to find itself without a government again by Wednesday.
Michel Barnier, appointed by President Macron after July’s fragmented parliamentary election, is poised to lose a no-confidence vote over the budget. The numbers simply don’t add up in his favor, making him likely to become the shortest-serving prime minister in France’s Fifth Republic.
Barnier’s minority government was always precarious, surviving on the goodwill of opposing factions. His coalition relied on the support of his conservative group and Macron’s centrists, but they have consistently been outnumbered by the left-wing alliance and Marine Le Pen’s populist right. Now, with both blocs united against him in the no-confidence vote, his fall is inevitable.
The crisis, long anticipated, was delayed by prolonged debates over the 2025 budget. Shortly after assuming office in September, Barnier proposed a budget aimed at cutting the deficit by €60bn (£49bn) to meet EU expectations and stabilize France’s finances. However, without a parliamentary majority, the budget was drastically altered by opposition amendments, including tax cuts and increased spending, which fundamentally changed its scope.
Despite efforts to reconcile differences through parliamentary back-and-forth with the Senate, the revised budget remains unacceptable to the opposition. Le Pen, in particular, demanded further concessions, such as scrapping a new electricity tax and fully reinstating index-linked pensions. While Barnier conceded significantly, it was insufficient to win her support, and she now plans to withdraw her backing.
Barnier and his allies have warned of potential chaos, questioning whether any responsible leader would risk plunging France into yet another government crisis. They argue such instability could rattle financial markets, increase borrowing costs, and necessitate severe spending cuts. Le Pen, however, dismissed these concerns, asserting that the fallout would be manageable, with constitutional mechanisms ensuring basic government functions continue.
If Barnier is ousted, he will likely remain as a caretaker prime minister while Macron, currently on a trip to Saudi Arabia, seeks a replacement—an effort that could take weeks, as it did after Macron’s summer electoral missteps. Temporary measures, such as extending the 2024 budget into 2025, would keep essential services operational until a new government is in place.
However, the deeper crisis lies in the political deadlock created by Macron’s dissolution of parliament in June. The inability to form a stable government underscores the intractability of the situation. Barnier, widely seen as Macron’s best option for fostering consensus, has failed, exposing the chronic dysfunction at the heart of France’s political system.
While new elections cannot be called until July, some now argue that Macron himself should step down—a notion previously dismissed as unrealistic. Yet, as the chaos deepens, the question looms: how much more can France endure?
