A think tank has warned that London’s iconic black cabs could vanish from the city’s streets within 20 years unless action is taken to reverse their decline. Recommendations include increasing financial support for cab drivers purchasing electric taxis and simplifying the Knowledge test.
According to Centre for London, if the current rate of decline continues, black cabs could be completely gone by 2045. The number of licensed taxis has already dropped significantly, from 22,810 in 2013-14 to 14,470 in 2023-24, partly due to the rise of Uber and other private hire services. In 2024, only 104 new black-cab licenses were issued, compared to 1,010 in 2016.
Strict environmental regulations now require newly licensed taxis to be zero-emission capable, but the high cost of electric black cabs—around 40% more expensive than in 2017—has deterred many drivers. Meanwhile, government grants for electric taxis have been reduced to £4,000 and will end in 2026, and Transport for London’s (TfL) scrappage scheme has already concluded.
The Knowledge of London test, which is notoriously difficult and can take over three years to complete, has also discouraged potential drivers. A survey by the cab-hailing app Freenow found that over half of private hire drivers had ruled out becoming black-cab drivers due to the challenging nature of the test, with nearly a third considering it “too hard.”
Centre for London urged TfL to reform the Knowledge requirements to attract more drivers and called on the London mayor to push for interest-free loans for newly qualified drivers purchasing electric taxis.
Despite the challenges, some believe black cabs will endure. LSE professor Tony Travers noted that while traditional taxis have had to adapt to competition, they remain a strong symbol of London. TfL also reaffirmed its commitment to supporting black cabs, announcing plans for a new taxi and private hire strategy.
Antonia Jennings, CEO of Centre for London, emphasized the importance of preserving black cabs as an accessible and safe transport option. Meanwhile, Steve McNamara of the Licensed Taxi Drivers’ Association dismissed the idea that black cabs would disappear, stating that the trade, which dates back to the 17th century, is at a critical turning point but not at risk of extinction.
