Myanmar’s 2024 census recorded a population of 51.3 million, reflecting a slight decline compared to 51.5 million a decade ago, state media reported on Wednesday. The census, conducted in October, will serve as the basis for voter registration ahead of elections planned for this year, which opposition groups have widely criticized as illegitimate.
Junta leader Min Aung Hlaing, in a New Year’s address published in state media, stated, “I am committed to successfully organizing a free and fair election, which is the ultimate goal of the State Administration Council.”
The country has been mired in turmoil since the military ousted an elected civilian government in early 2021, violently suppressing pro-democracy protests and triggering a nationwide armed resistance. The military continues to battle rebels across multiple fronts while struggling to govern amid an economic collapse, undermining what was once a promising frontier market during a decade of tentative democracy.
In December, Myanmar’s foreign minister briefed neighboring countries on the junta’s election plans, which have faced widespread criticism for excluding opposition groups.
The reported population of 51.3 million includes 32.2 million people counted directly and an estimated 19.1 million in areas inaccessible due to security and logistical challenges, according to the census report. Notably, the Muslim Rohingya minority was excluded from both the 2014 and 2024 censuses.
The population estimate, derived partly from high-resolution satellite imagery obtained from providers in Russia, China, India, and Europe, contrasts with the World Bank’s projection of 54.5 million for 2024, based on UN World Population Prospects data. The World Bank had previously estimated Myanmar’s population at 50.7 million in 2014.
The census underscores ongoing challenges in Myanmar, including governance issues and limited access to conflict-affected regions. The exclusion of the Rohingya population, who are denied citizenship and have faced years of systemic persecution, further highlights the country’s deep-seated ethnic and political divides.
The data’s reliance on estimates for inaccessible areas raises questions about its accuracy, particularly as the junta faces international scrutiny over its legitimacy and ability to conduct credible elections. Critics argue that the planned elections aim to consolidate military power rather than restore democracy, given the exclusion of opposition groups and the lack of international observers.
Humanitarian organizations and foreign governments remain concerned about the junta’s approach to governance, as the ongoing armed conflict has displaced hundreds of thousands and exacerbated economic hardships. Efforts to mediate a resolution, including initiatives by ASEAN (the Association of Southeast Asian Nations), have made limited progress, with the junta resisting calls for a ceasefire or inclusive political dialogue.
Meanwhile, the disparity between Myanmar’s official census results and international population estimates reflects broader concerns about the transparency and reliability of data under military rule. As the junta moves forward with its election plans, these discrepancies may fuel further skepticism about the regime’s capacity to address the country’s critical socio-political and economic challenges.
