Following a series of high-profile aviation accidents, some social media users speculated that air travel mishaps or planes crashing were becoming more frequent.
Dramatic videos of near misses began trending online, prompting U.S. Transport Secretary Sean Duffy to address public concerns in an interview with CBS News, a BBC partner. Duffy reassured viewers that the recent surge in air disasters across America was “highly unusual.”
His statement came in response to several major incidents, including a mid-air collision in Washington, D.C., in January, where 67 people lost their lives. Additionally, footage of a plane overturning upon landing in stormy weather in Toronto, Canada, circulated widely, amplifying public apprehension.
Although polling data is scarce, a recent media survey indicated that viral footage of such incidents has influenced consumer confidence in flying.
However, a media analysis of U.S. and global aviation data shows that air accidents have generally declined over the past two decades.
According to figures from the National Transportation Safety Board (NTSB), aviation accidents in the U.S. have decreased between 2005 and 2024, even as air traffic has grown. The data further reveals that in January 2025, there were 52 recorded incidents—fewer than in January 2024 (58) and January 2023 (70).
Similarly, statistics from the International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO), a UN agency monitoring global air incidents, indicate a steady decline in aviation accidents per million departures from 2005 to 2023. ICAO defines an accident broadly, including incidents involving injuries, aircraft damage, or missing planes.
Global fatality data in aviation also shows a general decrease, albeit with occasional spikes due to major disasters.
For instance, 2014 saw a sharp rise in fatalities due to two catastrophic events: the disappearance of Malaysia Airlines flight MH370 with 239 people on board in March and the downing of MH17 by a Russian-made missile over Ukraine in July, killing nearly 300 people.
Professor Sir David Spiegelhalter, an expert in statistics from the University of Cambridge, explained that aviation fatality figures tend to fluctuate dramatically. He noted that random accidents can appear clustered, even when they are unrelated.
Ismo Aaltonen, Finland’s former chief air disaster investigator, emphasized that the recent streak of aviation incidents does not indicate a decline in safety. He pointed out that many recent crashes were isolated cases with distinct causes, such as the Azerbaijan Airlines flight that crashed in Kazakhstan after being struck by a Russian anti-aircraft missile in December.
Marco Chan, a former pilot and senior lecturer at Buckinghamshire New University, noted that heightened awareness of aviation disasters is partly due to increased social media exposure. A viral TikTok video even humorously suggested that aviation incidents have risen since former U.S. Transport Secretary Pete Buttigieg left office, using a clip from a Superman film to make the point.
The Boeing 737 Max has also drawn significant scrutiny after a series of safety concerns, including a January 2024 incident where a door panel detached mid-flight. This led to public backlash, boycotts, and a decline in Boeing’s stock value.
Experts told media that aviation authorities thoroughly investigate such incidents, using findings to improve pilot training and safety measures. Aaltonen highlighted the advancements in flight simulators, which now closely mimic real aircraft, vastly improving pilot preparedness.
Regulators also enforce strict penalties for safety violations, including fines, license suspensions, and operational restrictions. Airlines failing to meet safety standards may even face flight bans in certain regions.
Despite recent incidents, air travel remains the safest mode of transportation.
According to the U.S. Department of Transportation, over 95% of transportation-related fatalities in 2022 occurred on roads, while less than 1% were linked to air travel.
When considering fatalities per miles traveled, aviation’s safety record becomes even more evident. The National Safety Council reported that in 2022, airlines recorded only 0.001 passenger deaths per 100 million miles traveled, compared to 0.54 in passenger vehicles.
Aaltonen summed it up simply: “The most dangerous part of your journey is getting to the airport, not the flight itself.”
