Arrivals of Indian nationals to Canada as temporary residents — including workers and international students — have fallen sharply in the first six months of 2025, signalling potential stress in the Canada-India migration corridor and raising questions about Ottawa’s immigration strategy.
Data from the Association for Canadian Studies’ October immigration report shows that under the International Mobility Program (IMP), total entries in January–June dropped from 410,825 in 2024 to 302,280 this year, a decline of 26.4%. For Indian nationals, the IMP share slipped from 109,125 in Jan–June 2024 to 94,010 during the same period in 2025 — a 14% drop. In the Temporary Foreign Worker Program (TFWP), overall entries declined from 109,310 to 105,195 (-3.8%) and internal targets for 2025 had anticipated about 82,000 entries. The steepest contraction was among international students: new study permit holders fell from 245,055 in the first half of 2024 to 149,860 this year — a 38.8% fall overall — while Indian students dropped from 99,950 to 47,695, a staggering 52.3% reduction.
The report argues that while the broader target for all temporary resident arrivals in 2025 is 673,650 (covering workers and students), the declines so far are not proportionate to the intended cuts — suggesting deeper shifts or structural bottlenecks. In consequence, the Canadian government may have to accelerate cuts in the second half of the year to bring final numbers in line with policy objectives.
The drop in Indian-origin temporary migrants to Canada comes amid tightening global student mobility, shifting labour market demands, and heightened scrutiny in immigration and work permit regimes. For India, which had been a major source of both students and workers to Canada, this signals a major pivot in recent flows. The 14% decline under the IMP shows Indian workers are also being affected, while the more than 50% slump in Indian study permit arrivals points to the diminishing appeal or increased difficulty of the Canadian student route.
In response to mounting pressures, the Immigration, Refugees and Citizenship Canada (IRCC) emphasized that it remains “committed to returning immigration to sustainable levels, including reducing Canada’s temporary population to less than 5 %.” The IRCC further noted the data in question relate to new TFWP visas and renewals, and the category of new visas alone tallied 33,722 — only 42% of the annual target.
The findings have triggered fresh criticism from the opposition Conservative Party of Canada (CPC), which has called for the abolition of the TFWP. Meanwhile, Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney (though this appears to be a mis-identification in the original report) acknowledged that the worker programme cannot simply be erased, but must be reformed.
For prospective Indian migrants, students and workers alike, the trend signals that Canada’s openness to temporary entries is being scaled back — either through stricter controls, slower processing, or shifting priorities in labour and education policy. For India, too, the decline will raise questions among recruiting agencies, student-placement firms and potential movers about how the change will affect visa pipelines, recruitment flows and international education partnerships.
As Canada prepares to release its next immigration levels plan, many observers anticipate further tightening of temporary entry targets, a move that would force scholars, job-seekers and intermediaries in India to reassess Canada as a destination. The data underscore that what had been a growth story in India-Canada mobility may now be entering a phase of retrenchment, with ramifications for students, workers and both countries’ migration and education ecosystems.
