Singapore’s jet fuel imports likely reached multi-year highs in December, with India emerging as the top supplier due to the closure of the arbitrage route to Europe, according to trade sources and ship tracking data.
Increased supply to Singapore, along with anticipated higher exports from China following the allocation of its 2025 export quotas last week, could pressure Asia’s spot jet fuel prices, sources said, requesting anonymity.
December saw Singapore’s jet fuel imports rise to an estimated 2.55 million barrels, up from approximately 2 million barrels in November, based on data from LSEG, Kpler, and trade sources. The majority of this supply came from India and South Korea.
India redirected its jet fuel and kerosene exports from Europe to Asia due to the closed east-west arbitrage, FGE analyst Liu Xuanting noted. This increased supply caused the regrade—the price spread between jet fuel and 10-ppm gasoil—to turn negative mid-December. The regrade averaged an 80-cent per barrel discount over the past two weeks, compared to an 80-cent premium in November.
Indian refiners typically sell refined products through spot tenders, with volumes sent to Asia or northwest Europe depending on arbitrage opportunities. In November, India’s jet fuel exports to Asia hit multi-year highs, while no shipments were sent to northwest Europe. December exports to northwest Europe remained at around 1 million barrels, consistent with October’s two-year low levels, according to LSEG and Kpler data.
Some refiners in northeast Asia shifted from diesel to jet fuel production in recent months, drawn by better margins, said a regional source. Analysts noted that east-west price spreads still favor Asia as the primary destination for January cargoes.
India is expected to send around 600,000 barrels of jet fuel to Southeast Asia and Australia in January, according to a shipbroking source. However, traders anticipate jet fuel flows from the Middle East and India to northwest Europe could resume soon, as inventories in the Amsterdam-Rotterdam-Antwerp (ARA) hub have dropped to eight-month lows.
With abundant supply from China, Asian markets are likely to remain well-stocked over the next two months, potentially prompting swing suppliers to redirect volumes westward, a third trade source added.
